Israeli Climate Change Forecasts for the Year 2100

• Mean temperature increase of 1.6° to1.8°C.
• Reduction in precipitation by (-8)% to (-4)%, and increased rain intensity/changes in rainfall patterns.
• Increase in evapotranspiration by nearly 10%.
• Greater seasonal temperature variability.
• More severe weather events, such as droughts and floods.
• Mediterranean biomes expected to shift 300-500 km northward, if a 1.5ºC warming were to occur, which could mean that Mediterranean ecosystems in Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan would become more desert-like.
• Some models predict as much as a 50 percent reduction in mean annual precipitation in the Jordan River Basin.

Environmental Effects of Climate Change on the Middle East

• Severe water shortages.
• More severe weather events, such as droughts and floods.
• Desertification, loss of arable land.
• Shifting of ecosystems, species loss.
• Coral reef bleaching.
• Increase in jellyfish population.
  
  

Socioeconomic Effects of Climate Change on Middle East

• Severe water shortages.
• Agricultural losses.
• Migration in search of resources.
• Refugees from inundated lands.
• Economic crisis

Political Ramifications

• Increased tension between countries sharing water resources.
• Difficulties for governments to provide for their country’s needs, leading to internal instability and a likelihood of failed states.
• “Exacerbated marginal living conditions foster extremist and radical ideologies and conflicts” — U.S. Army General Anthony Zinni

Security Implications

• Fewer water resources available for existing agreements.
  
  • Israel/Jordan more difficult to comply with Jordan River water sharing arrangement (50 mcm/pa).
  • Jordan/Israel more difficult to comply with Yarmouk River water sharing arrangements (27 mcm/pa).
  • Israel/PA future needs recognized 70-80 mcm/pa. In final agreement, Palestinian demands will be higher.

• Fewer water resources available for future agreements.
  • Israel/Lebanon sharing of the Jordan River tributaries.
  • Israel/Syria sharing of the Jordan and sources of the Sea of Galilee.

• Less rainfall impacts the economy.
  • Palestinian Authority economy heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture for income and employment.
  • Jordan Valley bread basket of Jordanian food production and rural support backbone of Kingdom’s political stability.
  • Israeli agricultural lobby powerful across political divide.

• Rising sea levels will impact the coastal aquifer beneath Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
  • Further increase salinity of drinking water for Gaza.
  • Further contaminate the coastal aquifer.

Source: Israel’s First National Communication on Climate Change, submitted under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Jerusalem (Nov. 2000).