Israeli Climate-Change Forecasts for the Year 2100

• Mean temperature increase of between 1.6° and 1.8° C.
• Reduction in precipitation between 4 and 8 percent; increased rain intensity; and changes in rainfall patterns.
• Increase in evapotranspiration by nearly 10 percent.
• Greater seasonal temperature variability.
• More severe weather events, such as droughts and floods.
• Mediterranean biomes expected to shift 300 to 500 km northward; if a 1.5º C warming were to occur, which could mean that Mediterranean ecosystems in Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan would become more desert-like.
• Some models predict as much as a 50 percent reduction in mean annual precipitation in the Jordan River Basin.

Environmental Effects of Climate Change on the Middle East

• Severe water shortages.
• More severe weather events, such as droughts and floods.
• Desertification, loss of arable land.
• Shifting of ecosystems, species loss.
• Coral reef bleaching.
• Increase in jellyfish population.
  
  

Socioeconomic Effects of Climate Change on Middle East

• Severe water shortages.
• Agricultural losses.
• Migration in search of resources.
• Refugees from inundated lands.
• Economic crisis

Political Ramifications

• Increased tension between countries sharing water resources.
• Difficulties for governments to provide for their country’s needs, leading to internal instability and a likelihood of failed states.
• “Exacerbated marginal living conditions foster extremist and radical ideologies and conflicts.” — U.S. Army Gen. Anthony Zinni

Security Implications

• Fewer water resources available for existing peace agreements.
  
  • More difficult to comply with Jordan River water sharing arrangement (50 mcm/pa).
  • More difficult to comply with Yarmouk River water-sharing arrangements (27 mcm/pa).
  • Palestinian future needs recognized as 70 to 80 mcm/pa. In a final agreement, Palestinian demands will be higher.

• Fewer water resources available for future agreements.
  • Lebanon will want to share water from the Jordan River tributaries.
  • Syria will want to share water from the Jordan River and sources of the Sea of Galilee.

• Less rainfall impacts the economy.
  • Palestinian Authority economy heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture for income and employment.
  • Jordan Valley bread basket of Jordanian food production and rural support backbone of Kingdom’s political stability.
  • Israeli agricultural lobby powerful across political divide.

• Rising sea levels will impact the coastal aquifer beneath Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
  • Further increase salinity of drinking water for Gaza.
  • Further contamination of the coastal aquifer.

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Source: Israel’s First National Communication on Climate Change, submitted under COP 6: The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, held Nov. 13 — 25, 2000 in The Hague, Netherlands.